Assesing the Impact of the Investment Climate on Productivity Using Firm-Level Data: Methodology and the Cases of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua

Developing countries are increasingly concerned about improving country competitiveness and productivity, as they face the increasing pressures of globalization and attempt to improve economic growth and reduce poverty. Among such countries, Investment Climate Assessments (ICA) have become a standard instrument for identifying key obstacles to country competitiveness and imputing their impact on productivity, in order to prioritize policy reforms for enhancing competitiveness. Given the survey objectives and the nature and limitations of the data collected, this report discusses the advantages and disadvantages of using different productivity measures based on data at the firm level. The main objective is to develop a methodology to appropriately estimate, in a robust manner, the productivity impact of the investment climate variables. To illustrate the use of this methodology, the report applies it to the data collected for ICAs in three countries: Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Observations in logarithms (logs) of the variables, and not in rates of growth, are pooled from all three countries. The econometric analysis is done with variables in logs to reduce the impact of measurement errors and allow inclusion of as many observations as possible since the “panel” data set is very unbalanced. Endogeneity of the production function inputs and of the investment climate variables is addressed by using a variant of the control function approach, based on individual firm information, and by aggregating investment climate variables by industry and region. It is shown that it is possible to get robust results for 10 different productivity measures, if one follows a consistent econometric methodology of specification and estimation. For policy analysis, the report strongly recommends using those results of investment climate variables on productivity that are robust for most of the productivity measures. Efficiency aspects of firms in each country are also analyzed. Finally, the results are decomposed to obtain country-specific impacts and establish corresponding priorities for policy reform. The actual estimates for the three countries show the level of significance of the impact of investment climate variables on productivity. Variables in several categories, red tape and infrastructure in particular, appear to account for over 30 percent of productivity. The policy implications are clear: investment climate matters enormously and the relative impact of the various investment climate variables indicates where reform efforts should be directed. Given the robustness of the results, it is argued that the econometric methodology of productivity analysis developed here ought to be used as a benchmark to assess productivity effects for other ICAs or surveys with firm-level data of similar characteristics

Quantum SUSY signatures in low and high energy processes

In the search for phenomenological evidence of supersymmetry through the indirect method of quantum signatures, it is useful to seek correlations of the non-standard quantum effects in low and high energy proceses, such as those involving on one hand the properties of the B-mesons and on the other hand the physics of the top quark and of the Higgs bosons. There are regions of the MSSM parameter space where the potential quantum SUSY signatures in the two energy regimes are strongly interwoven and therefore the eventual detection of these correlated quantum effects would strongly point towards the existence of underlying supersymmetric dynamics.Comment: 17 pages, LaTeX, 7 figs included with epsfig. Talk at the 5th International Workshop on High Energy Physics Phenomenology (WHEPP-5). To appear in the Proceeding

Just-in-case inventories - a cross-country analysis

The authors find that raw materials inventories in the manufacturing sector in the 1970s and 1980s were two to three times higher in developing countries than in the United States, despite the fact that in most developing countries real interest rates were at least twice as high. Those significantly high levels of inventories are a burden and an obstacle to country competitiveness and need to be addressed. Poor infrastructure and ineffective regulation, as well as deficiencies in market development, rather than the traditional factors used in inventory models (such as interest rates and uncertainty), are the main determinants and explain these differences. Cross-country estimations show that a one standard deviation worsening of infrastructure increases raw materials inventories by 11 percent to 37 percent, and a one standard deviation worsening of markets increases raw materials inventories by 18 percent to 37 percent. These findings are robust across a number of different proxies and specifications, including an industry-level specification that controls for fixed country effects.Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access

Institutional aspects of credit cooperatives

The most common form of government intervention in the rural sector has been massive lending at subsidized interest rates. Credit programs generally aim to reach small farmers. However, despite the expansion of credit over the last three decades, few farmers in low income countries seem to have received or benefited from such credit. It has thus been common for small-scale farmers to resort to the formation of organized credit groups or cooperatives. This paper is a normative analysis of cooperatives viewed as institutions to improve the plight of small-scale farmers. The purpose is to analyze which structures are most successful, then to promote credit cooperatives and to design an optimal incentive scheme in place of subsidized credit policies of the past. The paper concludes by stating that a policy of providing assistance to existing and potential credit groups on how to set incentives, implement monitoring schemes and develop centralized resources is more desirable and more cost effective than the old fashioned and largely regressive subsidized credit policies.Banks&Banking Reform,Strategic Debt Management,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

Robust methodology for investment climate assessment on productivity: application to investment climate surveys from Central America

Developing countries are increasingly concerned about improving country competitiveness and productivity, as they face the increasing pressures of globalization and attempt to improve economic growth and reduce poverty. Among such countries, Investment Climate Assessments (ICA) surveys at the firm level, have become the standard way for the World Bank to identify key obstacles to country competitiveness, in order to prioritize policy reforms for enhancing competitiveness. Given the surveys objectives and the nature and limitations of the data collected, this paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of using different productivity measures. The main objective is to develop a methodology to estimate, in a consistent manner, the productivity impact of the investment climate variables. The paper applies it to the data collected for ICAs in four countries: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Observations on logarithms (logs) of the variables are pooled across three countries (Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua). Endogeneity of the production function inputs and of the investment climate variables is addressed by using a variant of the control function approach, based on individual firm information, and by aggregating investment climate variables by industry and region. It is shown that it is possible to get robust results for 10 different productivity measures. The estimates for the four countries show how relevant the investment climate variables are to explain the average level of productivity. IC variables in several categories (red tape, corruption and crime, infrastructure and, quality and innovation) account for over 30 percent of average productivity. The policy implications are clear: investment climate matters and the relative impact of the various investment climate variables indicate where reform efforts should be directed in each country. It is argued that this methodology can be used as a benchmark to assess productivity effects in other ICA surveys. This is important because ICA surveys are available now for more than 65 developing countries.Total factor productivity, Investment climate, Competitiveness, Firm level determinants of productivity, Robust productivity impacts,

Inventories in developing countries : levels and determinants - a red flag for competitiveness and growth

Raw materials inventories in the manufacturing sector in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were two to five times as high in developing countries as in the United States, despite the fact that in most developing countries real interest rates are at least twice as high. Given the high cost of capital in most developing countries, these high inventory levels have an enormous impact on the cost of doing business and on productivity and competitiveness. Poor infrastructure and ineffective regulation as well as deficiencies in market development - rather than the interest rates and uncertainty - are the main determinants of these differences. Cross-country estimates show that a one-standard-deviation improvement in infrastructure reduces raw materials inventories by 27-47 percent. Poorly functioning markets, as measured by the ratio of transfers and subsidies to GDP, are also an important factor, with a one-standard-deviation improvement leading to a 19-30 percent reduction in raw materials inventories. The authors show that these reductions in raw materials inventories are not offset by a reduction in finished goods inventories upstream. The policy implications are clear and strong. Improvements in infrastructure (roads, ports, and telecommunications) can help to significantly reduce inventory levels (and thus the cost of doing business), especially when accompanied by effective regulation and the development and deregulation of associated markets.Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Transport and Trade Logistics,Common Carriers Industry

Assessing the impact of the investment climate on productivity using firm-level data : methodology and the cases of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua

Developing countries are increasingly concerned about improving country competitiveness and productivity as they face the increasing pressures of globalization and attempt to improve economic growth and reduce poverty. Among such countries, investment climate assessments (ICA) have become a standard instrument for identifying key obstacles to country competitiveness and imputing their impact on productivity, in order to prioritize policy reforms for enhancing competitiveness. Given the survey objectives and the nature and limitations of the data collected, the authors discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using different productivity measures based on data at the firm level. Their main objective is to develop a methodology to appropriately estimate, in a robust manner, the productivity impact of the investment climate variables. To illustrate the use of this methodology, the authors apply it to the data collected for ICAs in three countries-Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Observations in logarithms (logs) of the variables, and not in rates of growth, are pooled from all three countries. The econometric analysis is done with variables in logs to reduce the impact of measurement errors and allow inclusion of as many observations as possible since the"panel"data set is very unbalanced. The authors address the endogeneity of the production function inputs and of the investment climate variables by using a variant of the control function approach based on individual firm information, and by aggregating investment climate variables by industry and region. The authors show that it is possible to get robust results for 10 differentproductivity measures, if one follows a consistent econometric methodology of specification and estimation. For policy analysis, they recommend using those results of investment climate variables on productivity that are robust for most of the productivity measures. The also analyze efficiency aspects of firms in each country. Finally, they decompose the results to obtain country-specific impacts and establish corresponding priorities for policy reform. The actual estimates for the three countries show the level of significance of the impact of investment climate variables on productivity. Variables in several categories, red tape and infrastructure in particular, appear to account for over 30 percent of productivity. The policy implications are clear: investment climate matters enormously and the relative impact of the various investment climate variables indicates where reform efforts should be directed. Given the robustness of the results, the authors argue that the econometric methodology of productivity analysis developed here ought to be used as a benchmark to assess productivity effects for other ICAs or surveys with firm-level data of similar characteristics.

Robust investment climate effects on alternative firm-level productivity measures

Developing countries are increasingly concerned about improving country competitiveness and productivity, as they face the increasing pressures of globalization and attempt to improve economic growth and reduce poverty. Among such countries, Investment Climate surveys (ICs) at the firm level, have become the standard way for the World Bank to identify key obstacles to country competitiveness, in order to prioritize policy reforms for enhancing competitiveness. Given the surveys objectives and the nature and limitations of the data collected, this paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of using different total factor productivity (TFP) measures. The main objective is to develop a methodology to generate robust investment climate impacts (elasticities) on TFP under alternative measures. The paper applies it to the data collected for ICs in four developing countries: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Observations on logarithms of the production function variables are pooled across three countries (Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua). Endogeneity of the production function inputs and of the investment climate variables is addressed by using observable firm level information, a variant of the control function approach, considering IC variables as proxy and also by aggregating certain investment climate variables by industry and region. It is shown that by using this methodology it is possible to get robust IC “elasticities” on TFP for more than ten different TFP measures. The robust IC elasticity estimates for the five countries show how relevant the investment climate variables are to explain the average productivity of each country. IC variables in several categories (red tape, corruption and crime, infrastructure and, quality and innovation) account for over 30 percent of average productivity. The policy implications are clear: investment climate matters and the relative impact of the various investment climate variables helps indentifying where reform efforts should be directed in each country. It is argued that this robust methodology can be used as a benchmark to assess cross-country productivity effects in other IC surveys. This is important since similar firm-level IC surveys on several sectors (manufacturing, services, etc.) are now available at the World Bank for more than 65 developing countries.Total factor productivity measures, Investment climate, Observable fixed effects, Robust investment climate elasticities, Input-output elasticities

Rural credit in developing countries

Subsidized formal credit to the agricultural sector has been advocated as more efficient, equitable, and easier to implement than, say, land reform. But the record on subsidized credit to farmers is dismal. It shows a significant failure either to achieve an increase of agricultural output cost-effectively or to improve rural income distribution and alleviate poverty. Many of the financial institutions have proven to be inept and to lack accountability. Common features of the success stories are tougher stands on default; strict auditing and accounting procedures and financial control; and some form of joint responsibility or liability by small groups of farmers, whereby default by one member cancels future loans to the whole group.Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Insurance&Risk Mitigation